A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How We Can Save the World and Create Prosperity by Nicholas Stern
| A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How We Can Save the World and Create Prosperity by Nicholas Stern | |
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| Category: Politics and Society | |
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Reviewer: Trish Simpson-Davis
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| Summary: The author of the 2006 Stern review argues convincingly in favour of immediate action by developed nations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases contributing to global warming. He posits that new technology will provide increased economic activity throughout the world, and thus a pathway to equitable, sustainable future development. A thorough briefing on the economics of climate change. | |
| Buy? Yes | Borrow? Yes |
| Pages: 246 | Date: January 2010 |
| Publisher: Vintage | |
| ISBN: 978-0099524052 | |
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The hardback edition of 'A Blueprint for a Safer Planet' was published early in 2009 as an update to the 2006 Stern Review on the economics of climate change. Now here is the paperback edition, published too early to critique Copenhagen, but nonetheless an interesting read. Stern is an expert witness who presents his evidence understandably for the layman; he is unemotional and very convincing.
Do you have global warming-warning fatigue? Me, too. For the past few years I've taken to sticking my head under a cushion and ignoring most of the tv coverage on climate change, mainly because, twenty-five years after first recognizing the problem, I despair at predictable disasters happening in front of my eyes. So the best thing about this book for me, is its authoritative optimism. I think people will look back in another twenty five years and say 'Look at Nicholas Stern's book: he saw the way forward in 2010'. I wonder if they will follow up with: 'thank goodness they got started,' or: 'but unfortunately the procrastination continued'?
Emissions are currently 430 ppm CO2e (parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalents). The most radical – and safest – proposal is that, in order to stay within the temperature range in which humans evolved, emissions would need to reduce drastically and urgently to levels of 400 ppm CO2e so that the rise in accumulated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could be halted and eventually turned back.
Business as usual allows total emissions to grow unchecked perhaps to a level of about 750 ppm CO2e by the end of this century, as developing countries raise economic output and population levels. In this scenario, scientists predict a 47% chance of temperature rises of 5°C or above, a level not experienced on the planet for 30-50 million years. The effects would be devastating in terms of sea level rise, storms, floods and droughts which would be profoundly damaging to human populations.
In the third scenario, emissions are pinned to 500 ppm CO2e, but this almost certainly brings temperature rises of 2°C. With the temperature so far only 0.8°C higher, the phrase, you ain't seen nothing yet, springs to mind. According to Stern, this middle course, requiring action to start immediately, is economically the most effective. The search for new technological solutions in, for example, renewables, efficient energy usage, and adapting to the physical effects of global warming is projected to cost around 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) per annum. Reducing dependence on oil will provide substantial economic development around the world.
Importantly, Stern argues that climate change should be bracketed with world poverty, in summary because of the former's exacerbating effect on the latter. The underlying moral argument is that the richer nations have caused 1200 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide to accumulate in the atmosphere. The per capita emissions rate for developed countries adds around 11 tonnes a year, while fast-developing nations nudge 4 tonnes per year and the least developed countries have a stable, low emissions rate of only 0.02 tonnes. Developed economies therefore have an obligation to fund survival and adaptation of the most vulnerable countries on the planet. Stern suggests that in order to achieve equity, developing nations should also have less aggressive emissions targets at first, since they have rapidly expanding populations plus a developmental shortfall to plug. He also favours a carbon trading market, so that countries can use their allowances to best effect. Halting deforestation is another urgent priority, as it still contributes around 20% of greenhouse gases.
Singly, none of these actions will solve the problem of climate change, but together, there seems to be a fighting chance that the planet can emerge in better shape in all respects if action starts now. Ambitious action plans require international collaboration rather than confrontation, and it's tragic that this is proving the biggest stumbling block to progress.
The Bookbag would like to thank the publishers for sending this book.
Two readable books exploring the detail of respectively, global warming and poverty, are Heat: How to Stop the Planet Burning by George Monbiot and Enough: Why the World's Poorest Starve in an Age of Plenty by Scott Kilman and Roger Thurow.
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You can read more book reviews or buy A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How We Can Save the World and Create Prosperity by Nicholas Stern at Amazon.com.
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